Quantum Computers: The $40 Billion Bet on Machines That (Still) Don't Work

The Uncomfortable Truth of 2025

In 2024-2025, quantum computing lived through its moment of greatest media hype. Google announced its "Willow" chip[^1], Amazon unveiled "Ocelot"[^2], Microsoft presented "Majorana One"[^3]. Bombastic headlines talk of "revolutions" and "historic breakthroughs".

But here's the truth that no one wants to admit: quantum computers today are literally useless.

Yes, you read that correctly. Despite billions invested and grandiose promises, in 2025 there is not a single real-world problem that a quantum computer can solve better, faster, or more cheaply than a normal computer.

Yet behind the hype lies a $40 billion geopolitical race that could redraw the global balance of power.

The Reality Behind the Hype

Google Willow: Fast on Non-Existent Problems

Google caused a stir by declaring that its 105-qubit Willow chip can solve calculations in 5 minutes that would take supercomputers "10 septillion years"[^1]. The chip truly represents a technical breakthrough: for the first time, errors decrease when more qubits are added, solving a 30-year-old theoretical problem[^4].

Sounds impressive, doesn't it?

But there is one detail: that ultra-fast calculation is "random circuit sampling," a problem invented specifically to test quantum computers. It's like saying that your car can beat a horse in a race... on Mars.

The "random circuit sampling" that Willow performs so quickly is a problem invented specifically to make quantum computers look good. No company, university, or government has ever needed to solve it.

The good news: Google has shown that quantum error correction really works. The bad news: we're still very far from useful applications.

Amazon Ocelot: The "Schrödinger's Cat" Approach

Amazon has taken a different path with Ocelot, a 9-qubit chip that uses so-called "cat qubits" (named after Schrödinger's famous cat). The idea is ingenious: instead of correcting errors after they occur, these qubits are naturally resistant to certain types of errors.

The result? Amazon claims to reduce error correction resources by 90%[^5]. It's like going from needing 1,000 firefighters to just 100 to put out the same fire. Still too many to be practical, but a significant improvement.

Microsoft Majorana: 20 Years of Controversial Particles

Microsoft has taken the riskier approach: "topological" qubits based on particles called Majorana particles. The idea is that these exotic particles are naturally protected from errors, like information written in a knot rather than on fragile paper.

After 20 years and billions invested, Microsoft says it has finally created these particles[^6]. The problem? Many scientists remain skeptical. Nature published the results with a note that essentially says "we are not convinced"[^7].

The Three Philosophies of Quantum Computing

These different machines represent three completely different philosophies:

Google/IBM (Superconductors): "We build lots of qubits and solve errors through brute force"

• Pro: Mature technology, many qubits
• Con: Thousands of physical qubits are needed for one useful "logical" qubit

Amazon/Others (Cat Qubits/Ions): "We make qubits that are naturally less error-prone"

• Pro: Fewer resources needed for correction
• Con: Slower and more complex to control

Microsoft (Topological): "We're searching for the Holy Grail: qubits that are perfect by nature"

• Pro: If it works, it's revolutionary
• Con: A big "if" - it might never work

Italy and Europe: Behind Schedule but Not Out of the Game

The installation of the IQM quantum computer at the Polytechnic University of Turin is not just a technological acquisition: it is geopolitical. With €2 million, Italy has secured direct access to quantum technology without depending on American or Chinese clouds.

The five qubits of the Turin system may seem few, but the point is not power: it is strategic autonomy[^9]. Europe has understood that control of quantum technology will determine who will have power in the coming decades.

The EU Quantum Flagship program is worth €1 billion, with an additional €8 billion from member states. The goal is not to beat the Americans tomorrow, but to not depend on them the day after tomorrow.

Real Applications: Much Ado About Nothing

Despite the hype, current "use cases" are disappointing:

Finance: Costly Experiments

JPMorgan Chase made headlines by generating "truly random numbers" with a quantum computer. Problem: normal computers have been doing the same thing for decades with components costing just a few euros. It's like using a rocket to light a candle.

Real financial applications (portfolio optimization, derivative pricing) remain on paper. Current quantum computers are too slow and unreliable to handle real money.

Medicines: Distant Promises

Roche is collaborating with Quantinuum on Alzheimer's research[^15], but it simulates molecules so simple that a laptop does a better job. Real proteins have millions of atoms: millions of reliable qubits will be needed.

Automotive: Quantum Marketing

Volkswagen created the first "quantum production system" by optimizing nine buses in Lisbon[^16]. The result: it works, but a normal optimization algorithm would cost 1,000 times less.

The Business of Dreams

The quantum market is already worth $1.16 billion and is expected to reach $16.4 billion by 2030[^17]. How is this possible if it serves no purpose?

Quantum Cloud: Renting the Impossible

Amazon Braket, IBM Quantum, and Microsoft Azure Quantum offer access to their quantum computers. Prices range from hundreds to thousands of dollars per month to conduct experiments and tutorials. It is comparable to renting a spaceship to learn how to drive.

Quantum-as-a-Service: $48 Billion in Hype

The "Quantum-as-a-Service" market is expected to grow from $2.3 billion (2023) to $48.3 billion (2033). But no one knows yet what exactly to sell. It's venture capital based on pure hope.

Why Do They Keep Investing?

If quantum computers are so useless, why do they continue to receive billions in investment?

1. Fear of Being Left Out

No major tech company wants to be the one that "missed the quantum boat." So they invest to avoid falling behind, even if they don't really know what they're investing in.

2. Marketing and PR

Saying "we have a quantum computer" makes a company sound innovative and cutting-edge. It's worth billions in terms of image, even if the machine doesn't do anything useful.

3. The Promise of the Future

The idea is that sooner or later (perhaps in the 2030s) quantum computers will become useful. It is a very long-term investment based more on hope than on concrete evidence.

The Truth About "Use Cases"

The industry loves to talk about revolutionary applications: drug discovery, financial optimization, artificial intelligence. But here's the reality:

• Drugs: The molecules simulated on quantum computers are so simple that a regular laptop does better
• Finance: Quantum algorithms for trading exist only on paper
• AI: Current quantum computers are too slow and unreliable to help artificial intelligence

Why Research Is Still Crucial

Before dismissing it all as useless hype, let's consider what this "quantum rush" is producing:

Real Scientific Advances

• New cryogenic cooling techniques
• Innovative mathematical algorithms
• Extremely precise laser control
• Advanced superconducting materials

Talent Development

Thousands of physicists and engineers are developing skills that will be needed for the technologies of the future. It's like the space program: expensive today, essential tomorrow.

Strategic Preparation

When (not if) quantum computers become useful, those with the skills and infrastructure will have a head start. It is a long-term investment disguised as immediate innovation.

Realistic Timeline: 2030, Maybe

The most honest experts admit that truly useful quantum computers are at least 10-15 years away. And that's assuming that problems are solved that may be unsolvable:

2025-2028: Incremental improvements, still no practical application

2028-2032: First "fault-tolerant" quantum computers with hundreds of logical qubits

2032+: (Maybe) the first real commercial applications

What It Means to You

If you work for a company that is "exploring quantum computing":

• Follow developments but with a critical eye
• Train some in-house experts
• Experiment with low-cost quantum clouds
• Identify problems that could benefit from quantum in the future
• Focus on technologies that actually work today

What Not to Do

• Don't invest millions in immediate "quantum solutions"
• Don't panic if a competitor announces "quantum partnerships"
• Don't believe promises of immediate advantages

The Most Profound Lesson: The Economics of Promise

Quantum computing reveals a fascinating paradox: the more useless a technology is today, the more it could be worth tomorrow.

This creates counterintuitive dynamics. Google can spend hundreds of millions solving non-existent problems and see its stock rise by billions. Microsoft can search for controversial particles for twenty years and attract even more investors. Amazon can build computers that do less than a Raspberry Pi and be celebrated as an innovator.

Quantum computing isn't just technology: it's institutionalized speculation. Governments and companies are essentially betting billions on the fact that this technology will sooner or later become crucial. It's venture capital on a national scale.

But there's a fundamental difference compared to the speculative bubbles of the past: here not investing could be strategic suicide. If quantum computers one day really do break all modern cryptography, whoever isn't ready will be cut off from entire economic sectors. It's a bet no one can afford to lose, but that no one yet knows how to win.

Conclusion: Waiting for Quantum Godot

Quantum computers are like Godot in Beckett's play: everyone talks about them, everyone waits for them, but they never arrive. In the meantime, the industry has built an entire economic ecosystem around this expectation.

Quantum computers in 2025 are simultaneously:

• Practically useless (they don't solve real problems better than the alternatives)
• Strategically crucial (whoever is ready first will dominate entire sectors)
• Scientifically fascinating (they're pushing the limits of physics and engineering)

The hype is exaggerated for immediate results, but probably underestimated for long-term impact. This is normal in radical innovation: at first it seems like useless magic, then it becomes indispensable.

The next time you read about a "quantum breakthrough," ask yourself two questions:

1. "Does it solve a problem I have today?" (Probably not)
2. "Will whoever controls it win in 15 years?" (Probably yes)

In the meantime, enjoy the spectacle of this billion-dollar technological race. It's expensive, sometimes ridiculous, but it could be the prelude to the next industrial revolution.

Sources

[^1]: Google. "Meet Willow, our state-of-the-art quantum chip." December 2024. https://blog.google/technology/research/google-willow-quantum-chip/

[^2]: Amazon. "Amazon's new Ocelot chip brings us closer to building a practical quantum computer." February 2025. https://www.aboutamazon.com/news/aws/quantum-computing-aws-ocelot-chip

[^3]: Microsoft. "Microsoft's Majorana 1 chip carves new path for quantum computing." February 2025. https://news.microsoft.com/source/features/innovation/microsofts-majorana-1-chip-carves-new-path-for-quantum-computing/

[^4]: Google Quantum AI. "Quantum error correction below the surface code threshold." Nature 638, 651–655 (2024). https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-024-08449-y

[^5]: Caltech. "New Ocelot Chip Makes Strides in Quantum Computing." February 2025. https://www.caltech.edu/about/news/new-ocelot-chip-makes-strides-in-quantum-computing

[^6]: Microsoft Azure Quantum. "Microsoft unveils Majorana 1." February 2025. https://azure.microsoft.com/en-us/blog/quantum/2025/02/19/microsoft-unveils-majorana-1-the-worlds-first-quantum-processor-powered-by-topological-qubits/

[^7]: Nature. "Microsoft quantum computing 'breakthrough' faces fresh challenge." February 2025. https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-025-00683-2

[^8]: Politecnico di Torino. "The first IQM quantum computer in Italy is turned on in Turin." May 2025. https://www.polito.it/en/polito/communication-and-press-office/poliflash/the-first-iqm-quantum-computer-in-italy-is-turned-on-in

[^9]: Data Center Dynamics. "IQM installs quantum computer at Politecnico di Torino." May 2025. https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/news/iqm-installs-quantum-computer-at-politecnico-di-torino-data-center/

[^10]: Il Sole 24 ORE. "Turin, Links Foundation and Poli 'switch on' a quantum computer." October 2024. https://en.ilsole24ore.com/art/turin-foundation-links-and-poly-turn-on-quantum-computer-AGXb2Tk

[^11]: Science News. "Physicists are mostly unconvinced by Microsoft's new topological quantum chip." March 2025. https://www.sciencenews.org/article/microsoft-topological-quantum-majorana

[^12]: IEEE Spectrum. "Microsoft's Topological Qubit Claims Create Mixed Reactions." March 2025. https://spectrum.ieee.org/topological-qubit

[^13]: Physics. "Microsoft's Claim of a Topological Qubit Faces Tough Questions." Physics 18, 68 (2025). https://physics.aps.org/articles/v18/68

[^14]: JPMorgan Chase. "Certified randomness using a trapped-ion quantum processor." Nature, March 2025. https://www.jpmorgan.com/technology/news/certified-randomness

[^15]: Argonne National Laboratory. "JPMorgan Chase, Argonne and Quantinuum show quantum speedup." March 2025. https://www.anl.gov/article/jpmorgan-chase-argonne-and-quantinuum-show-theoretical-quantum-speedup-with-the-quantum-approximate

[^16]: McKinsey & Company. "The Rise of Quantum Computing." April 2024. https://www.mckinsey.com/featured-insights/the-rise-of-quantum-computing

[^17]: Grand View Research. "Quantum Computing Market Size | Industry Report, 2030." https://www.grandviewresearch.com/industry-analysis/quantum-computing-market

[^18]: Precedence Research. "Quantum Computing Market Size to Hit USD 16.44 Billion by 2034." https://www.precedenceresearch.com/quantum-computing-market

[^19]: P&S Market Research. "Quantum Computing Market Size, and Growth Report, 2032." https://www.psmarketresearch.com/market-analysis/quantum-computing-market

[^20]: Fortune Business Insights. "Quantum Computing Market Size, Share & Growth Report, 2032." https://www.fortunebusinessinsights.com/quantum-computing-market-104855